Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
