Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
